本篇論文目錄導航：
【題目】人口紅利對城鄉收入的作用探析
【第一章】人口紅利下城鄉收入問題探究緒論
【第二章】城鄉收入差距的測定方法及人口紅利影響
【第三章】人口紅利期我國城鄉收入差距現狀分析
【第四章】人口紅利對我國城鄉收入差距的實證分析
【結論/參考文獻】基于人口紅利的城鄉收入差距研究結論與參考文獻
摘 要
從新中國成立以來，我國的人口結構經歷了兩次變化，伴隨著人口結構的變化，我國現有的人口年齡結構呈現出低撫養比和高勞動參與率的現狀。根據瑞典1957 年人口生命表中對人口紅利期的規定，以 14 歲及以下作為少兒人口、65歲及以上作為老年人口。在人口年齡結構中，當人口總撫養比小于 50%的時候，該地區就進入人口紅利期。我國自 1993 年進入人口紅利期以來，經濟依舊維持著高速發展，但是城鄉收入差距卻不斷的擴大。從 1993 年至今，城鄉居民收入差從 1665.8 元上升到 16648.14 元，城鄉居民收入比從 2.80 倍提高到了 3.10倍。為了社會的和諧穩定，城鄉共享人口紅利，縮小城鄉收入差距已迫在眉睫。
本文通過研究現有相關人口紅利的理論及其相關概念，從人口紅利的兩個顯著特征，高勞動參與率和總撫養比的下降分析對城鄉收入差距的影響途徑進行理論分析。依據理論分析，以中國 1993-2012 年的第二三產業總比重、城鄉人力資本投資差異和城鄉收入差距的時間序列數據，構建 VECM 模型。實證結果表明，城鄉收入差距在長期受到產業結構的變動和城鄉人力資本投資差異的共同作用；在滯后期內，第二三產業總比重的增加導致城鄉收入差距的縮小，而城鄉人力資本投資差異的擴大將導致城鄉收入差距擴大。
最后，得以證明出實證結果與理論分析途徑相吻合，將二者相結合，應該在人口紅利期及以后，通過優化產業結構升級轉型和減少城鄉人力資本投資差異來縮小我國城鄉收入差距。據此，結合我國現有國情，提出相關政策建議四點：增加政府對農業的支持，提高農民收入水平；消除制度障礙，統一城鄉勞動力市場；加快產業結構升級，發展現代服務業；增加農村人力資本投資，提高農村勞動生產率。
關鍵詞：人口紅利；城鄉收入差距；政策建議
Abstract
Since the foundation of new China, it's population structure has changed twice.
Along with the change of population structure, a low dependency ratio and high laborparticipation rate have appeared in our country's population age structure. Accordingto Swedish population life table, which stipulated the demographic period, childrenunder 14 years old are regarded as underage population and people at the age of 65 orover 65 are regarded as elderly population. In the population age structure, when totaldependency ratio is less than 50%,the region goes into the demographic period. Sinceour country went into demographic period in 1993,the economy has been developingrapidly ,but the income gap between urban and rural areas has been enlarged. Since1993, the income gap between urban and rural residents has risen from 1665.8 yuan to16648.14 yuan, the income ratio of urban and rural residents increased to 3.10 timesfrom 2.80 times. For the sake of social harmony and stability, it is extremely urgentthat urban and rural areas share the demographic dividend , and that the income gapbetween urban and rural areas should be narrowed.
By studying the present related theory of demographic period and it's concept,this paper puts forward theoretical hypothesis from the two significant characteristicsof demographic dividend---high labor participation rate and decreasing totaldependency ratio. According to theoretical hypothesis , VECM model is built byusing the time series data of the total proportion of secondary and tertiary industry,the urban-rural human capital investment difference and the urban-rural income gapfrom 1993 to 2012 in China. The empirical results show that the change of industrialstructure and the difference of urban-rural human capital investment all affect theurban-rural income gap. In the lag period, the increase of the total proportion ofsecondary and tertiary industry will narrow the gap between urban and rural areaswhile the expansion of urban-rural human capital investment difference will widenthe income gap between urban and rural areas.
Finally, in order to prove that the empirical results coincide with theoreticalanalysis, combining the two, should be in the demographic dividend period and so on,by optimizing the industrial structure upgrading transformation and reduce the urbanand rural human capital investment difference to narrow the income gap betweenurban and rural areas in China. On this basis, combining with the national conditions,the following four relevant policy suggestions are put forward: increasing governmentsupport for agriculture and increasing farmers' income level; eliminating theinstitutional obstacles and unifying urban and rural labor market; Speeding up theupgrading of industrial structure and developing labor-intensive industries; Increasingthe rural human capital investment and improving labor productivity in thecountryside.
Key words: Demographic dividend; the urban-rural income gap; Policy Suggestions
目錄
摘 要
Abstract
1 緒論
1.1 研究背景與意義
1.2 國內外研究現狀
1.3 研究框架與研究方法
1.4 本文的創新點與不足
2 相關基本概念、理論及研究假設
2.1 相關基本概念
2.1.1 人口年齡結構
2.1.2 人口撫養比
2.1.3 人口紅利及人口紅利期
2.2 城鄉收入差距的測定方法
2.3 人口紅利對城鄉收入差距的影響途徑
2.3.1 高勞動參與率對城鄉收入差距的影響
2.3.2 總撫養比下降對城鄉收入差距的影響
3? 人口紅利期我國城鄉收入差距現狀分析
3.1 我國人口紅利期的判定
3.2 我國人口紅利期的特征
3.3 人口紅利期我國城鄉收入差距現狀及變動趨勢
4? 人口紅利對我國城鄉收入差距的實證分析
4.1 實證模型構建
4.2 相關數據選擇與說明
4.3 實證分析結果與結論
4.3.1 單位根檢驗
4.3.2 協整檢驗
4.3.3 誤差修正模型（VECM）及其診斷檢驗
4.3.4 Granger 因果關系檢驗
4.3.5 脈沖響應函數
5 結論及政策建議
5.1 結論
5.2 政策建議
5.2.1 增加政府對農業的支持，提高農民收入水平
5.2.2 消除制度障礙，統一城鄉勞動力市場
5.2.3 加快產業結構升級，大力發展現代服務業
5.2.4 增加農村人力資本投資，提高農村勞動生產率
致謝
參考文獻
