摘 要
隨著城市化進程的推進，城市人口規模和用地規模的擴展是城市發展的必然趨勢。目前我國城市化進入快速發展階段，城市規模擴展迅速，隨著城市規模的不斷擴展，一些問題不斷凸顯：城市無序擴展，土地配置不合理，城市規劃系統性、科學性不強，農用地面積大幅減少等等，這就需要判斷怎樣的城市規模才能使城市人口和用地達到協調狀態，使城市發展達到最優效果。
本文以河北省為例，對河北省 33 個市的城市規模進行研究，用分形理論中的位序-規模法則分別分析河北省人口和用地規模分布的演變規律，進而用偏移份額模型并結合《城市用地分類與規劃建設用地標準》（GB50137-2011）分析各類城市建設用地的結構演化規律和合理發展方向，最后通過異速生長定律和城市用地擴展系數分析城市人口和用地之間的協調關系，以此分析的結果為依據，對河北省城市人口和用地的發展提出建議。得出了如下結論：
（1）全省城市體系發育不夠健全，首位度較低，2012 年全省 2 城市指數為 1.2,4 城市指數和 11 城市指數僅為 0.5,遠小于其合理值 1.規模序列結構正處于集中向分散過渡的發展時期，2012 年，人口規模 q 值為 0.81,用地規模 q 值則為 0.79,省內首位城市發展不足，大城市的規模比起全國其他省份來說遠遠不夠，其影響力距離理想狀態仍有很大差距；中小城市是推進全省城市化進程的主要力量?？傮w而言，全省尚未形成理想的規模序列結構，還處于發展的中間階段。
（2）城市各用地類型中，道路廣場用地和綠地為增長性結構，工業用地倉儲用地為主要衰減性結構；從空間分布看，遷安市、武安市等一批經濟發展較好的縣級市的補給效應比較強，其他城市的補給效應和擠出效應互有強弱。結合《標準》中各城市各類用地的超標狀況，居住用地和公共管理與公共服務用地的超標城市較多，尤其縣級市的居住用地占比較高。全省除承德市等少數幾個城市外，綠地的占地比例都不達標。
（3）河北省大部分城市用地增長速度高于人口增長速度，縱向來看近幾年尤為顯著，異速生長系數從 2000 年的 0.75（冪函數）和 0.66（線性函數），增加到 2012年的 0.87（冪函數）和 1.00（線性函數），從負異速變為正異速。橫向上近 2/3 的城市用地擴展系數超過合理值，地級市比縣級市的擴展系數偏高；并且除少數幾個城市外，河北省整體城市人口密度偏低，土地利用效率有待提高。
關鍵詞：城市規模；人口；土地；人地關系；河北省
Abstract
With the advance of urbanization, the expansion of urban population size and land size is theinevitable trend of urban development. At present, China has entered the stage of rapid developmentof urbanization, the city scale expanded rapidly, with the expanding of urban scale,Some questionscontinuously emerge: Urban sprawl, land configuration unreasonable, systematic and scientific is notstrong in urban planning, agricultural land area is significantly reduced, etc. which need to decidewhat city size can make the urban population and land reach coordination state and the urbandevelopment achieve optimal results.
Taking hebei province as an example, the rank-size rule is used to analyze the development lawsof urban population and urban land of 33 cities in Hebei province, and then the shift-share model andcombined with “standard of urban land classification and planning construction land” （GB50137-2011）are adopted to analyze the evolution law and the development direction of all kinds of urbanconstruction land structure, finally through the allometric growth law and and urban land expansionparameters to analysis the coordinate relationship between urban population and land., the results ofthis analysis as the basis, puts forward suggestions for the development of the urban population andland in hebei province. The following conclusions are drawn:
（1） Hebei urban system is not perfect and the primacy ratios is low, the two cities index in 2012was 1.2,the four city index and eleven city index was only 0.5, far less than its fair value 1. Scalesequence structure is in a development period of transition from concentration to dispersion , in 2012,q for the population size is 0.81 , q for the land size was 0.79, the first city development is insufficientin province, compared to other provinces , the size of the large cities is far from enough, its influenceis still far from the ideal state; Small and medium-sized cities is the main power in the urbanizationprocess in the province. Overall, the province has not yet formed an ideal scale sequence structure,still in the middle stage of development.
（2） Each land use types , road square land and green land showed a significant supply effect,industrial land and storage land had a structure of damping form; from the spatial distribution, a groupof county which economic develop better supply effect is stronger,such as Wu'an, the supply effectand crowding-out effect are strong with weak in other cities. Combined with the conditions exceeded“standards” for all types of land in various cities ,there are many cities which land size for residentialand public management and public service are beyond the “standard”,especially residential land ofcounty-level cities is higher. The proportion of green land is not is not up to standard in addition to thefew cities,like Chengde outside.
（3） The land expansion rate of most cities in Hebei province is higher than population growthrate, and it is especially significant in recent years from the vertical perspective. the coefficient forallometric growth from 0.75 in 2000 （power function） and 0.66 （linear function）， increased in 20120.87 （power function） and 1.00 （linear function）， from negative allometric to positive allometric.
From the horizontal perspective, the land expansion coefficients of nearly two-thirds of cities exceedthe reasonable value and the expansion coefficients of prefecture-level cities are large. Except of fewcities, the overall urban population density of Hebei province is low.
Keywords: city size; population; land; man-land relationship; Hebei
目 錄
1 前言
1.1 研究背景和意義
1.2 國內外研究進展
1.2.1 城市化及其相關研究
1.2.2 城市地理分形研究
1.2.3 人口與用地關系研究
1.3 研究目標、內容與技術路線
1.3.1 研究目標
1.3.2 研究內容
1.3.3 技術路線
2 相關概念、理論及方法
2.1 相關概念
2.1.1 城市化
2.1.2 城市規模
2.1.3 人地關系
2.2 基礎理論
2.2.1 社會系統定量化研究理論
2.2.2 城市科學與城市體系研究理論
2.2.3 協調發展理論
2.2.4 人地關系理論
2.3 研究方法
2.3.1 城市規模分布法則
2.3.2 偏移-份額模型
2.3.3 異速生長定律
2.3.4 用地擴展系數
3 研究區概況與基礎資料
3.1 研究區自然經濟概況
3.2 研究區城市化概況
3.3 數據來源及說明
4 河北省城市規模擴展研究
4.1 城市人口規模分布研究
4.1.1 全省城市人口規模分布的演變
4.1.2 全省城市人口規模分布的特征總結
4.2 城市土地利用特征研究
4.2.1 全省城市土利用結構變化分析
4.2.2 全省城市土地規模分布的演變
4.2.3 全省城市土地規模分布和用地結構變化的特征總結
5 河北省城市人口和用地協調關系研究
5.1 城市人口-面積異速生長特征研究
5.2 城市用地擴展系數研究
5.3 河北省人口用地關系總結
6 結論及建議
6.1 全文總結
6.2 政策建議
參考文獻
致 謝
隨著城市化進程的推進，城市人口規模和用地規模的擴展是城市發展的必然趨勢。目前我國城市化進入快速發展階段，城市規模擴展迅速，隨著城市規模的不斷擴展，一些問題不斷凸顯：城市無序擴展，土地配置不合理，城市規劃系統性、科學性不強，農用地面積大幅減少等等，這就需要判斷怎樣的城市規模才能使城市人口和用地達到協調狀態，使城市發展達到最優效果。
本文以河北省為例，對河北省 33 個市的城市規模進行研究，用分形理論中的位序-規模法則分別分析河北省人口和用地規模分布的演變規律，進而用偏移份額模型并結合《城市用地分類與規劃建設用地標準》（GB50137-2011）分析各類城市建設用地的結構演化規律和合理發展方向，最后通過異速生長定律和城市用地擴展系數分析城市人口和用地之間的協調關系，以此分析的結果為依據，對河北省城市人口和用地的發展提出建議。得出了如下結論：
（1）全省城市體系發育不夠健全，首位度較低，2012 年全省 2 城市指數為 1.2,4 城市指數和 11 城市指數僅為 0.5,遠小于其合理值 1.規模序列結構正處于集中向分散過渡的發展時期，2012 年，人口規模 q 值為 0.81,用地規模 q 值則為 0.79,省內首位城市發展不足，大城市的規模比起全國其他省份來說遠遠不夠，其影響力距離理想狀態仍有很大差距；中小城市是推進全省城市化進程的主要力量?？傮w而言，全省尚未形成理想的規模序列結構，還處于發展的中間階段。
（2）城市各用地類型中，道路廣場用地和綠地為增長性結構，工業用地倉儲用地為主要衰減性結構；從空間分布看，遷安市、武安市等一批經濟發展較好的縣級市的補給效應比較強，其他城市的補給效應和擠出效應互有強弱。結合《標準》中各城市各類用地的超標狀況，居住用地和公共管理與公共服務用地的超標城市較多，尤其縣級市的居住用地占比較高。全省除承德市等少數幾個城市外，綠地的占地比例都不達標。
（3）河北省大部分城市用地增長速度高于人口增長速度，縱向來看近幾年尤為顯著，異速生長系數從 2000 年的 0.75（冪函數）和 0.66（線性函數），增加到 2012年的 0.87（冪函數）和 1.00（線性函數），從負異速變為正異速。橫向上近 2/3 的城市用地擴展系數超過合理值，地級市比縣級市的擴展系數偏高；并且除少數幾個城市外，河北省整體城市人口密度偏低，土地利用效率有待提高。
關鍵詞：城市規模；人口；土地；人地關系；河北省
Abstract
With the advance of urbanization, the expansion of urban population size and land size is theinevitable trend of urban development. At present, China has entered the stage of rapid developmentof urbanization, the city scale expanded rapidly, with the expanding of urban scale,Some questionscontinuously emerge: Urban sprawl, land configuration unreasonable, systematic and scientific is notstrong in urban planning, agricultural land area is significantly reduced, etc. which need to decidewhat city size can make the urban population and land reach coordination state and the urbandevelopment achieve optimal results.
Taking hebei province as an example, the rank-size rule is used to analyze the development lawsof urban population and urban land of 33 cities in Hebei province, and then the shift-share model andcombined with “standard of urban land classification and planning construction land” （GB50137-2011）are adopted to analyze the evolution law and the development direction of all kinds of urbanconstruction land structure, finally through the allometric growth law and and urban land expansionparameters to analysis the coordinate relationship between urban population and land., the results ofthis analysis as the basis, puts forward suggestions for the development of the urban population andland in hebei province. The following conclusions are drawn:
（1） Hebei urban system is not perfect and the primacy ratios is low, the two cities index in 2012was 1.2,the four city index and eleven city index was only 0.5, far less than its fair value 1. Scalesequence structure is in a development period of transition from concentration to dispersion , in 2012,q for the population size is 0.81 , q for the land size was 0.79, the first city development is insufficientin province, compared to other provinces , the size of the large cities is far from enough, its influenceis still far from the ideal state; Small and medium-sized cities is the main power in the urbanizationprocess in the province. Overall, the province has not yet formed an ideal scale sequence structure,still in the middle stage of development.
（2） Each land use types , road square land and green land showed a significant supply effect,industrial land and storage land had a structure of damping form; from the spatial distribution, a groupof county which economic develop better supply effect is stronger,such as Wu'an, the supply effectand crowding-out effect are strong with weak in other cities. Combined with the conditions exceeded“standards” for all types of land in various cities ,there are many cities which land size for residentialand public management and public service are beyond the “standard”,especially residential land ofcounty-level cities is higher. The proportion of green land is not is not up to standard in addition to thefew cities,like Chengde outside.
（3） The land expansion rate of most cities in Hebei province is higher than population growthrate, and it is especially significant in recent years from the vertical perspective. the coefficient forallometric growth from 0.75 in 2000 （power function） and 0.66 （linear function）， increased in 20120.87 （power function） and 1.00 （linear function）， from negative allometric to positive allometric.
From the horizontal perspective, the land expansion coefficients of nearly two-thirds of cities exceedthe reasonable value and the expansion coefficients of prefecture-level cities are large. Except of fewcities, the overall urban population density of Hebei province is low.
Keywords: city size; population; land; man-land relationship; Hebei
目 錄
1 前言
1.1 研究背景和意義
1.2 國內外研究進展
1.2.1 城市化及其相關研究
1.2.2 城市地理分形研究
1.2.3 人口與用地關系研究
1.3 研究目標、內容與技術路線
1.3.1 研究目標
1.3.2 研究內容
1.3.3 技術路線
2 相關概念、理論及方法
2.1 相關概念
2.1.1 城市化
2.1.2 城市規模
2.1.3 人地關系
2.2 基礎理論
2.2.1 社會系統定量化研究理論
2.2.2 城市科學與城市體系研究理論
2.2.3 協調發展理論
2.2.4 人地關系理論
2.3 研究方法
2.3.1 城市規模分布法則
2.3.2 偏移-份額模型
2.3.3 異速生長定律
2.3.4 用地擴展系數
3 研究區概況與基礎資料
3.1 研究區自然經濟概況
3.2 研究區城市化概況
3.3 數據來源及說明
4 河北省城市規模擴展研究
4.1 城市人口規模分布研究
4.1.1 全省城市人口規模分布的演變
4.1.2 全省城市人口規模分布的特征總結
4.2 城市土地利用特征研究
4.2.1 全省城市土利用結構變化分析
4.2.2 全省城市土地規模分布的演變
4.2.3 全省城市土地規模分布和用地結構變化的特征總結
5 河北省城市人口和用地協調關系研究
5.1 城市人口-面積異速生長特征研究
5.2 城市用地擴展系數研究
5.3 河北省人口用地關系總結
6 結論及建議
6.1 全文總結
6.2 政策建議
參考文獻
致 謝
