摘 要
從 2004 年開始，我國房地產價格總體呈現上漲趨勢，并出現了局部過熱的現象。與此同時，北京、上海、深圳等大城市房地產價格也呈快速上漲趨勢，這引起了國家的高度關注，并出臺了一系列政策措施，來抑制房地產價格的過快膨脹，使得房地產市場有了一些積極改變，但部分城市的房地產價格仍呈快速上漲的趨勢，貨幣政策調控效果不理想，這對我國國民經濟的健康運行帶來了巨大的負面影響，找到有效調控房地產價格的貨幣政策迫在眉睫。同時，我國幅員遼闊，各城市的地理環境、經濟發展水平等各方面存在巨大差異，這使得我國房地產價格存在明顯的城市差異，因此，為了使國家政策能夠有效調控房地產價格，研究貨幣政策對房地產價格影響的城市差異性就顯得尤為重要。
本文第一部分是對貨幣政策及房地產價格相關理論概述。先對貨幣政策的一般問題進行了簡要介紹；接著介紹了房地產價格的定義，從理論上概述了房地產價格的影響因素，最后，簡要分析了我國貨幣政策對房地產價格的影響機理。
第二部分介紹了我國房地產價格發展變動歷程及成因。本章中包含兩部分內容：一是從全國層面和各城市的角度，對我國房地產價格波動特征進行了闡述，二是從供給、需求的角度，介紹了我國房地產價格變動的成因。
第三部分是對房地產價格對貨幣政策的反應程度進行了實證分析。首先進行實證方法的選擇，包括平穩性檢驗、協整檢驗、向量誤差修正模型、Granger 因果檢驗、面板數據模型。其次確定變量和數據，最后運用上述方法從全國和城市兩個層面對我國貨幣政策對房地產價格的影響進行實證分析：即，先從全國層面分析我國貨幣政策對房地產價格的影響程度，然后對我國城市按照一二三四線的標準進行劃分，并選擇其中的 35 個大中城市作為研究對象來分析我國貨幣政策對不同類型城市房地產價格的影響差異。
第四部分對主要研究結論進行歸納，并針對分析結果提出相應的政策建議：第一，貨幣政策的制定要有針對性、有差異性； 第二，進一步完善落后城市的金融體系，推動經濟穩步向前；第三，配合其他政策法規，促進房地產市場健康發展。
關鍵詞：貨幣政策 房地產價格 面板數據模型 城市差異
ABSTRACT
Since 2004, our country appears the trend that the price of the real estate rises .Atthe same time, a phenomenon that the price of the real estate of some cities overheatingoccurs. Meanwhile, the price of the real estate of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen andmany other cities rises rapidly, which causes our country's high attention. Therefore, ourcountry introduces a series of policy and measures to curb the price of the real estateexpanding excessively fast. Thanks to those policies, they bring some positive changes tothe real estate market. But in some cities, the increasing speed of the price of the realestate hasn't been changed. The effect of monetary policy is not ideal, which has anegative impact on the function of our national economy. Thus, it is extremely urgent tofind an effective method to adjust to the the price of the real estate. On the other hand,our country is with a vast territory, and there are huge differences between cities in theaspects of geographical environment and the development of economy. As a result, thereexist obvious differences in the price of real estate between cities. In consequence, it isparticularly important to study the different relation in cities between monetarypolicy and the price of the real estate so that our policy can have an effective control onthe the price of the real estate.
First of all, this article introduces the theory of monetary policy and the price of thereal estate. It begins with brief recommend of the theory of monetary policy. And then, itgive a description of the definition of the price of the real estate. After that, it summarizesthe influence factors of the price of the real estate in theory. Finally, it introduces theinfluence mechanism of monetary policy on the real estate briefly.
Secondly, this article introduces the process and the causes of the development ofthe price of the real estate in our country. First of all, it gives a statement of thecharacteristic of price fluctuation of the real estate from the perspective of the cities andoverall. At last, it puts forward the factors of the change of the price of the real estate.
Thirdly, this article makes an empirical analysis on that the monetary policy impacton the price of real estate. It introduces empirical method first, which include stationaritytest, cointegration test, vector error correction model, Granger causality test, and Paneldata model. Then, it determines variables and data it uses. Finally, it uses the abovemethods to give an empirical research in monetary policy's impact on the price of the realestate in two aspects: on one hand, give an analysis of the influence of monetary policyon the price of the real estate on the whole. On the other hand, according to the standardsof one-two-three-four line, all the cities in our country can be devided into four types,and choose thirty-five large cities from them as the object of the research to analyze thedifferent effect of monetary policy on the price of the real estate between the cities..Finally, this artical summarizes the main conclusion of empirical analysis, and givethe corresponding policy and recommendations: First, monetary policy must be targetedand discrepant; Second, improve the financial system in behind cities, and promotesteady economy. Third, cooperate with other methods, and accelerate the healthydevelopment of the real estate market.
Key words : Monetary policy Price of the real estate Panel data modelDifferences between the cities
目 錄
摘要
ABSTRACT
緒論
0.1 選題背景及研究意義
0.1.1 選題背景
0.1.2 研究意義
0.2 國內外研究綜述
0.2.1 國外研究綜述
0.2.2 國內研究綜述
0.2.3 文獻評述
0.3 研究思路與方法
0.3.1 研究思路
0.3.2 研究方法
0.4 論文的創新點與不足之處
0.4.1 論文的創新點
0.4.2 本文的不足之處
1 我國貨幣政策及房地產價格相關理論概述
1.1 貨幣政策和房地產價格的一般問題
1.1.1 貨幣政策的一般問題
1.1.2 房地產價格的一般問題
1.2 貨幣政策對房地產價格的影響機理
1.2.1 貨幣政策調控房地產價格的政策工具
1.2.2 貨幣政策影響房地產價格的機理分析
2 我國房地產價格發展變動歷程及成因分析
2.1 我國房地產價格波動特征
2.1.1 中國房地產價格的變動歷程
2.1.2 我國各城市房地產價格的發展變動歷程
2.2 我國房地產價格發展變動成因分析
2.2.1 需求角度
2.2.2 供給角度
3 我國貨幣政策對房地產價格影響的計量分析
3.1 研究方法的選擇
3.1.1 平穩性檢驗
3.1.2 協整檢驗
3.1.3 格蘭杰因果檢驗
3.1.4 向量誤差修正模型
3.1.5 面板數據模型
3.2 變量的確定與選擇
3.3 我國貨幣政策對全國房地產價格一般水平的影響程度分析
3.3.1 數據的收集與處理
3.3.2 實證分析結果與討論
3.4 我國貨幣政策對不同類型城市房地產價格影響程度分析
3.4.1 城市的劃分
3.4.2 數據的收集與處理
3.4.3 實證分析結果與討論
4 結論與政策建議
4.1 主要研究結論
4.1.1 貨幣政策對房地產價格的長期影響
4.1.2 貨幣政策對房地產價格的短期影響
4.2 政策建議
參考文獻
致謝
