本篇論文目錄導航：
【題目】計劃生育新政遇到的困境探析
【第一章】影響計劃生育新政的因素研究緒論
【第二章】生育決策理論
【3.1 3.2】受訪者再生育意愿的特征分析
【3.3 - 3.6】受訪者再生育意愿的影響因素分析
【第四章】計劃生育新政的問題及原因分析
【第五章】計劃生育新政的對策與建議
【參考文獻】完善單獨二孩政策的策略研究參考文獻
目 錄
中 文 摘 要
Abstract
1 緒 論
1.1 研究背景及研究意義
1.2 國內外研究綜述
1.3 研究對象與方法
1.4 研究思路和框架
1.5 創新性與不足
2 相關概念和理論…
2.1 相關概念
2.2 生育決策理論
3 再生育意愿及其影響因素分析
3.1 調查數據的獲取與變量選擇
3.2 受訪者再生育意愿的特征分析
3.3 受訪者再生育意愿的影響因素分析
3.4 再生育意愿的影響因素建模
3.5 單獨二孩政策實施后泰山區出生人口分析
3.6 結論
4 問題及原因分析
4.1 申請再生育高峰問題分析
4.2 再生育“遇冷”問題
4.3 出生人口性別比治理難問題分析
5 對策與建議
5.1 加大宣傳力度，幫助群眾合理安排再生育
5.2 加強孕前優生和醫學指導，提高出生人口素質
5.3 加強出生人口性別比綜合治理
5.4 加強計劃生育基層組織網絡、隊伍建設和經費保障工作
5.5 推進計劃生育依法行政和加強執法監督情況
5.6 探索新的人口計生管理機制，解決特殊群體生育管理難的問題
5.7 做好相關部門利益導向政策銜接、執法配合和信息共享等工作
5.8 吸取境外經驗教訓
參 考 文 獻
致 謝
中 文 摘 要
2013 年 11 月，中共十八屆三中全會決定啟動實施一方是獨生子女的夫婦可生育兩個孩子的政策（以下簡稱“單獨二孩”政策），政策實施后全國各地并未出現生育高峰。2015 年 10 月 29 日，黨的十八屆五中全會決定，全面實施一對夫妻可生育兩個孩子政策（以下簡稱“全面二孩”政策），對生育生育進一步調整完善。國家在短短兩年時間內對計劃生育政策作出兩次重大調整，主要是由我國目前人口老齡化問題、勞動力人口下降、出生人口性別比偏高等人口問題嚴重決定的?！皢为毝ⅰ闭吆汀叭娑ⅰ闭撸ㄒ韵潞喎Q“計劃生育新政”）的實施對我國經濟發展、人口結構、勞動力供給問題起到積極作用的同時，也會帶來諸如生育扎堆、后續教育、醫療配套等社會保障問題。人口政策調整首先影響的是“二孩”生育問題，包括計劃生育新政實施影響的目標人群的“單獨夫妻”和“非獨生子女夫妻”的人口規模有多大，以及這些人到底有多少人想生育二孩，影響他們再生育意愿的因素到底有哪些？
本文以泰山區為例，對新政實施后的目標人群進行再生育意愿調查，分析他們的再生育意愿及其影響因素。統計分析表明，無論是“單獨夫妻”還是“非獨生子女夫妻”,再生育意愿相當（單獨夫妻 64.79%,非獨生子女夫妻 66.24%），但是再生育意愿均低于理想子女數（理想子女數是 2 個子女的 1773 人，79.20%）。受訪者無論一胎是男孩還是女孩，二胎性別均更傾向于順其自然，其次是女孩偏好大于男孩偏好；參考一孩性別后，二孩性別仍然是順其自然占絕大多數，其次是兒女雙全偏好明顯。分析再生育意愿的影響因素顯示年齡、職業背景以及現有子女年齡都對受訪人群的再生育意愿產生顯著影響。出生統計顯示，“單獨二孩”政策實施后，泰山區并未出現生育高峰，出生人口穩定，出生人口性別合理。同時，分析“單獨二孩”政策實施后出現的問題及原因分析，并針對問題提出對策建議，為“全面二孩”政策的順利實施提供參考。
關鍵詞：單獨二孩 全面二孩 再生育意愿 現實效應
Abstract
In November of 2013, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of theCPC decided to start the implementation of the selective two-child policy, which refers tothe two-child fertility policy for couples where either the husband or the wife is from asingle-child family （hereinafter referred to as “selective two-child” policy）。 After that, thereis not a baby boom across China. In 2015, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CentralCommittee of the CPC decided again to exert the full implementation of the policy that amarried couple can have two children, that is the universal two-child policy （ hereinafterreferred to as “universal two-child” policy ） on October 29th to further improve thereproductive fertility of the whole nation. In two years, Chinese central government hasmade two major adjustments on the family planning policy. It is mainly caused by thecurrent aging population, shortage in the labor force, the high sex ratio at birth and otherserious population-related problems. These two adjustments policies will play an active rolein promoting Chinese economic development, adjusting population structure and tacklingproblems of labor supply. Meanwhile, other problems will also appear, such as the crowedfertility, the following education, health care, medical treatment and other social securityissues of the new generation. It is known that the policy adjustment will exert an impact onthe issue of “two children” fertility. In details, what is the size of target population under theinfluence of the implementation of the new family planning policy? How many of them willplan to give birth to the second child? What factors influence their reproductive willingness?
In this thesis, the writer takes Taishan District for example to investigate thereproductive willingness of the target population under the new family planning policy andanalyze its influential factors. According to the statistics, whether either or neither of onecouple is from a one-child family, their reproductive willingness is equal （separate couples64.79%, non-child couples 66.24） mutually. However, it is lower than those people withideal children number （1773 people assume it ideal to own two children is two children,with the reproductive willingness of 79.20%）。 Whether his or her first child is a boy or agirl, respondents are more prone to be rational at the gender of the second child. Besides,they show more preference for girls than boys. As reference to the gender of the first child,majorities of them are rational at the gender of the second child. Then, they obviously preferto have both a son and a daughter. After analysis, the writer finds that both the respondents'
ages, their career backgrounds and ages of their elder children have had a significant impacton the reproductive willingness. The birth statistics show that the baby boom does notexist in Taishan District after the implementation of “selective two-child” policy. And thenumber of new born population is increased steadily with a reasonable birth sex ratio. Also,the writer finds out existing problems, analyze the impacts on family planning of fulfillmentof “selective two-child” policy and propose some advice for the problems as a reference forthe smooth implementation of “ universal two-child” policy.
Keywords: selective two-child policy; universal two-child policy; reproductive willingness; real effects
